Quarterly Market Wrap Q1 2025

The Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on major trading partners and fears of their impact on growth and inflation unsettled markets in the March quarter. Geopolitical anxieties also mounted as the US attempted to cut a peace deal with Russia, over the heads of Ukraine and European allies. In Australia, the RBA belatedly joined other central banks in cutting official interest rates, while the federal government announced tax cuts ahead of an election in May.
Global Markets and the Global Economy take different Paths

Since I last wrote in this column on 31 March there has been tremendous change. The way we live, the way we work, the way we engage with each other and the way we think about the future. Some of the change has been good, much of it terrible, and there is plenty that we’re still not sure about.
Tech has Skewed the Numbers
To make sense of this seemingly impossible dichotomy of rising markets and deteriorating fundamentals, we need to look more deeply into the stock market’s composition.
Massive Government Stimulus has Reflated the Markets
Any rational assessment of current market prices needs to factor in the huge increase in the money supply that has been spawned by global governments’ ‘whatever-it-takes’ intervention to support markets, businesses, and workers.
Likelihood of a Vaccine
Whilst still far from a certainty, we sense the odds of a vaccine being developed appear to be shortening. Researchers around the World are racing to develop a vaccine with more than 140 candidate vaccines now being tracked by the World Health Organisation (WHO).