August 07, 2020
Mark Minchin

Likelihood of a Vaccine

Whilst still far from a certainty, we sense the odds of a vaccine being developed appear to be shortening. Researchers around the World are racing to develop a vaccine with more than 140 candidate vaccines now being tracked by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Vaccines normally require years of testing and additional time to produce at scale, but according to the WHO, scientists are hoping to develop a coronavirus vaccine within 12 to 18 months. Governments too, are showing a preparedness to bend the rules to permit the fast tracking of promising candidates.

Despite this optimism, many epidemiologists remain skeptical and suggest that some of their peers are offering the community false hope. They warn that the three necessary phases of the clinical research pipeline to develop a vaccine would usually take ten years or more, and that its simply not realistic to think this can be done in 12-18 months. They also note that despite SARS-CoV emerging some 17 years ago, the world still has no vaccine for this first version of Coronavirus.

Who is right is, as always, hard to tell. But again we believe markets are doing a reasonable job of balancing the probabilities. 

The Correlation between the Economy and the Stock Market is Low in the Short-Term

Perhaps the most common misconceptions about the share market is that it is directly linked to a nation’s economy. This is simply not the case. History shows time and again that markets can perform well when the economy is slowing and vice versa.

August 07, 2020