Category: White Papers

Investor education

Timeless articles and videos to help
you become a better informed, more
confident, and less anxious investor

Six Ways to Improve Your Investment Decision Making 

In this week’s edition of Insights, we delve into the invaluable lessons left by the late Nobel Laureate, Daniel Kahneman. His ground-breaking contributions to behavioural economics have become a cornerstone of our investment philosophy.

April 09, 2024

Learn the Art of Zooming Out

Whilst current news and events tend to capture our attention and can often lead our investment decision making. Yet the truth is, this tendency to focus on recent events can be deeply counterproductive for us as investors.

April 03, 2024

What is a better investment, shares or property?

We are often asked which is the better investment — property or shares? There is no definitive answer because, as with any kind of investment, it depends on your individual circumstances and what you want to achieve. But it’s crucially important that you use accurate and reliable information.

March 20, 2024

Four Ways to Improve your Investment Decision Making

One of the most valuable life lessons Charlie Munger taught us is the importance of learning from other people, including their mistakes. He visit four of his lessons.

February 28, 2024

What to do when an expert warns of a looming crash?

As every investor who experienced either the dotcom crash or the global financial crisis will know, stock market crashes can be gut-wrenching. It’s no wonder, then, that people pay so much attention to warnings that they read in the media that the next crash may be just around the corner.

February 21, 2024

How to guard against overconfidence

In most aspects of our lives, confidence is an asset that supports us. It gives us courage, and helps us learn. But in the realm of investing, so many things that work for us in our normal lives, work against us when it comes to administering our investment portfolios.

January 29, 2024

Two ways in which the media hinders investors

One of the most common and most difficult to overcome biases that investors exhibit is that of ‘short termism’. How do we overcome this, in order to be better, less anxious investors?

January 14, 2024

How to help teenagers learn about money

Many of us who have teenage children may wonder how we can help them to develop a healthy attitude toward money and learn some basic money management skills.

January 03, 2024

Having strong opinions can be costly

It seems we all have a craving to believe in somebody – and often the somebody is peddling a view that suggests an investor can profit if they subscribe to it. But is following these strong personalities with their bold predictions wise?

December 13, 2023

How do fund managers invest their own money?

I’ve often been asked by clients how I invest my own money. This often led me to ponder; how would an active fund manager answer the same question?

November 29, 2023

No one can time the market consistently

Market timing is one of the most alluring notions for investors. The rewards are high for those who can ‘read the tea leaves’ and get the timing right.

November 16, 2023

Four Common Mistakes that Investment Professionals Make

In the field of investment management facts and fantasy abound and it is often hard to distinguish between the two. As in many walks of life, we often hear of the successes that professional money managers achieve…

November 13, 2023

The ‘Ego Trap’: unmasking self-attribution bias 

When students score top marks, they tend to put it down to their own intelligence or hard work. When they mess up, they might blame the teacher for not explaining…

October 31, 2023

Why Trading Stocks is a Bad Idea

The key thing to understand about buying individual stocks is that the vast majority are duds. Research has shown that, in the long run, only around four per cent of US stocks outperform Treasury Bills.

October 23, 2023

Income vs. Cash Flow; why the distinction matters 

For as long as we can remember, investors, the media and most retirees have misunderstood the concepts of income and cashflow. This may seem like semantics, but the distinction is…

October 10, 2023

Why wealthy families struggle to stay that way

It is remarkable how often the names on the rich list change. I often wonder why this is so. Once a fortune has been made, retaining it, and growing it modestly through generations, should be a straightforward affair – with the right advice.

August 29, 2023

How to guard against overconfidence

What is overconfidence bias? Constantinos Antoniou from Warwick Business School explains.

August 23, 2023

Eight scams you need to be on your guard against

Financial scams reported to consumer and finance authorities run into billions of dollars a year worldwide, and Australia is one of the countries where scams are growing the fastest.

How hard is investing really?

Most of us have no choice but to invest, at least a portion of our wealth, in equities. To fund the lifestyles we aspire to, and to ensure we have enough money to last us for the rest of our lives, we need to take that risk.

July 04, 2023

Two ways in which the media hinders investors

Author and fund manager Glen Arnold says there are two main drawbacks with consuming financial media. The first problem is that it encourages investors to focus too much on how their portfolio is performing.

June 30, 2023

Bonds or Term Deposits: Which is best for your Portfolio?

With term deposit rates up around 4.5% or higher, it's reasonable to that investors may question the role of a bond fund in their portfolio. Given that bond funds had…

June 29, 2023
Are outperforming fund managers skilful, or just lucky?

Are outperforming fund managers skilful, or just lucky?

To what extent is short-term outperformance down to manager skill? The manager, of course, is likely to say it is down to skill. Similarly, when a manager underperforms, they will often blame bad luck.

June 07, 2023

Investing is not a Race

“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.” That quote from the legendary investor Warren Buffett refers to a human tendency among investors to let their own biases and impulses distract them from investing cautiously.

February 26, 2023

How to teach small children about money

There’s a great deal of evidence to show that people’s attitude towards money starts to develop very early in life. So what can parents can do to help instil good habits in their children?

February 21, 2023

Why sitting tight in bear markets pays off

Nobody likes to the see the value of their portfolio fall, but bear markets are inevitable. In fact, it’s those bear markets that are the very reason why we can expect an investment return in the first place.

January 23, 2023

Six Lessons from Japan on Living a Long and Healthy Life

Most of us would like to live a long and healthy life. After all, there’s no point in working hard and investing for decades if your retirement only lasts a few years.

January 19, 2023

You should spend on things you love

Carl Richards is a former adviser and an expert on spending habits. His advice is to prioritise spending on time spent with loved ones.

January 04, 2023

Remember: in most cycles the markets will lead the recovery

Investors often worry, that when a recession is officially announced, markets will respond negatively. In truth, this is rarely the case. The key thing to understand here is that markets are forward-looking.

December 20, 2022

Look for an Adviser who is happy to admit “I don’t know”

In times of uncertainty, people look to financial advisers for answers on things they just aren’t qualified to comment on. Will markets fall further? Will there be a global recession? What…

November 30, 2022

Can investors control the way they behave?

The investor’s worst enemy, it’s been said, is likely to be himself. Regardless of whether they invest actively or passively, investors often harm their portfolios through the way they behave.

November 24, 2022

Portfolio size makes no difference

As with all industries, participants in the investment industry look to sell themselves, by advertising their own ‘secret formula’. Yet, given the complexity of financial markets and economics, these participants can use ‘poetic license’ more than most.

November 24, 2022

The economy is not the stock market

One of the most common misconceptions about investing is that the economy and the stock market are perfectly correlated. Yes, they are connected, but it’s not that simple. Peter Westaway is a Chief Economist at Vanguard Asset Management.

November 02, 2022

Three tips for those on the verge of retirement

Eddie’s a longstanding friend of mine. I’ve always admired his positivity and the almost effortless way he seems to glide through life. He’s also very intelligent: he knows what he…

October 28, 2022

Three things to remember when investing during high inflation

One story has dominated the economic news in 2022 — inflation. Around the world, prices have risen faster than forecasters were expecting, because of knock-on effects from the Covid-19 pandemic,…

October 24, 2022

What a Financial Planner can and can’t control

It’s hard to think of a profession that’s as misunderstood by the public as financial planning. If you ask people, “What does a financial planner do?”, the answer is likely…

September 28, 2022

What value does a Financial Planner really add?

Financial planning is widely misunderstood. This should come as no surprise. The media regularly tells us financial planners are just commission hungry salespeople looking to sell financial products. But what…

September 26, 2022

Should stock investors tactically rotate between different industries to chase trends?

We’re often hearing in the media about emerging industries that seem to offer exciting opportunities for investors. Right now, for instance, there’s plenty of discussion around driverless cars and 3D printing.

September 22, 2022

Investment tips from an industry insider

David Pitt-Watson is a fund industry insider. I’ve been to meet him and started by asking him the for the single most important piece of advice he’d give to ordinary investors.

September 13, 2022
Bear Market

Tips from a behaviour expert on handling the Bear Market

Mark Minchin, Managing Partner Minchin Moore One of the ironies of investing is that although it’s actually very simple — or at least it should be simple — that doesn’t mean it’s…

August 01, 2022

Are active funds the best investment tool to use in choppy markets?

Andrew Marchant, Chief Investment Officer, Minchin Moore Every bear market, the same story gets trotted out. It’s one that says while index funds may give you an easy ride up…

July 19, 2022

Keep calm and carry on

When markets soar, the reflexive nucleus accumbens fires up at the back of the brain’s frontal lobe, and we instinctively want to buy. When markets fall, the amygdala floods our bloodstream with corticosterone, fear kicks in, and we’re overwhelmed by the urge to sell.

July 13, 2022

Be prepared, more volatility is inevitable

We generally encourage our clients not to follow the ebb and flow of the global stock markets. But every now and then, you can’t easily avoid it, and we’re at one of those moments now. Share prices, and specifically price falls, are once again front-page news. So, what’s going on? And what, if anything, can investors do about it?

June 21, 2022

How to stay rational in volatile markets

Stock market volatility can be very uncomfortable for investors. It can also lead us to make irrational decisions. But learning to live with turbulent markets is a crucial component of successful investing. Listen to investment journalist Moira O’Neill.

June 20, 2022

Advice is Improving but Sharks still Lurk

It’s likely to take many years yet for the financial advice profession to regain the trust of the Australian public after the damning findings of the Hayne Royal Commission. The good news, says ROBIN POWELL, is that it finally seems to be turning the corner. But, he warns, you still need to be very cautious when choosing which firm to work with.

June 14, 2022
How to Exercise the Life Choices that Wealth Affords Wisely

How to Exercise the Life Choices that Wealth Affords Wisely

A new book by Andrew Hallam suggests we take some time to reflect on what true wealth is all about. The key, he says, is to find a healthy balance, and to work out what sort of purchases make the biggest contribution to our happiness and wellbeing.

May 31, 2022
Melissa Caddick scandal

Lessons from the Melissa Caddick Scandal

The story of a woman who stole some $30 million from friends and family while posing as a financial planner and then mysteriously disappeared is the subject of Australia’s most popular podcast. It is also an object lesson in what investors should look out for in spotting a fraud.

May 24, 2022

Research shows that traders are prone to act like gamblers — Even the professionals

Professor Richard Taffler from the University of Warwick is an expert on this subject. He says traders and investors typically exhibit behavioural characteristics more commonly associated with gamblers.

May 23, 2022
Election Investment Strategy

Don’t let the Election disrupt your Investment Strategy

With Australians due to go to the polls on 21st May, that old saying about never bringing up politics at the dinner table perhaps needs to be revisited and extended…

May 17, 2022

Minchin Moore Announces Merger; Opens Office in Melbourne

It is with great pleasure that I announce the merger of Minchin Moore with Melbourne firm, Professional Wealth.

May 06, 2022

Even with inflation looming, there’s still a place for bonds in your portfolio

Rapidly rising inflation is scary for those who haven’t experienced it — and that’s everyone under the age of around 50. It’s arguably even scarier for those who have. One…

May 03, 2022

How to choose a financial adviser

Michael Kitces is a well-renowned authority on this subject. He says that it’s important to realise that the role of an adviser, or financial planner as he prefers to call them, has changed considerably over the years.

April 24, 2022

Don’t assume outperformance is down to skill

Most investors base their decision on which actively managed fund to invest in on past performance. However they fail to appreciate the extent to which volatility skews returns. They assume that managers who’ve performed well were skilful, when in fact they outperformed simply because they took on more risk.

March 28, 2022

How investment marketing can mess with your mind

When faced with the truths about how many stock brokers or active fund managers actually outperform the market indexes, it is hard to understand why so many investors chose to invest through these mediums.

March 22, 2022

How to stay calm when markets fall

With the Ukraine crisis unfolding, markets are gyrating as, each day, they try to incorporate the new news and expectations into stock, commodity and bond prices. In this environment, as markets wobble, its easy to feel anxious, and feel like you need to do “something”. And yet, paradoxically, sometimes the best thing to do is nothing at all.

March 11, 2022

Five things Investors can Learn from Shane Warne

Drought, fire, pandemic, floods, war and now the premature death of an Australian sporting icon. What’s next? Shane Warne was a flawed individual who polarised opinion. But in this edition of Insights,…

March 09, 2022

Geopolitical Risk and Your Portfolio

Current events in Ukraine are having direct impacts on global markets. Russia and Ukraine are suppliers of raw materials, food an energy – essential for many supply chains.

March 01, 2022

Is the Investment Climate as gloomy as it seems?

The years 2020 and 2021 were not “normal years”. Both years humbled forecasters, virtually none of whom accurately predicted either the downturn or the recovery. Now, two years on, with the…

February 24, 2022

All-Time-High Anxiety

Weston Wellington Vice President, Dimensional Fund Advisers KEY TAKEAWAYS Financial journalists periodically stoke investors’ record-high anxiety by suggesting the laws of physics apply to financial markets—that what goes up must…

September 25, 2021

Mind Your Negativity going into 2021

Some sentiments doing the rounds right now: The 4% rule (consuming 4% of your portfolio value each year) will never work anymore because bond yields are so low.Tech stocks are…

December 22, 2020

Our Ten Year Journey

From the beginning, our strategy has been to build an independent, professional advice business, unlike anything that existed before. A business free from the conflicts of interest that have plagued…

December 22, 2020

US Election 2020 Inside the Numbers

"The most fundamental problem of politics is not the control of wickedness but the limitation of righteousness" Henry Kissinger Regardless of political creed or levels of interest, the one thing…

September 01, 2020

Time to Embrace Diversification and Total Return

In an environment of diminishing income returns a different approach to funding cashflow is required. This approach seeks to take advantage of the diversification benefits and growth potential from lower yielding assets and adopting a ‘total return’ mindset.

August 08, 2020

Global Markets and the Global Economy take different Paths

Since I last wrote in this column on 31 March there has been tremendous change. The way we live, the way we work, the way we engage with each other and the way we think about the future. Some of the change has been good, much of it terrible, and there is plenty that we’re still not sure about.

August 07, 2020

Tech has Skewed the Numbers

To make sense of this seemingly impossible dichotomy of rising markets and deteriorating fundamentals, we need to look more deeply into the stock market’s composition.

August 07, 2020

Massive Government Stimulus has Reflated the Markets

Any rational assessment of current market prices needs to factor in the huge increase in the money supply that has been spawned by global governments’ ‘whatever-it-takes’ intervention to support markets, businesses, and workers.

August 07, 2020

The Correlation between the Economy and the Stock Market is Low in the Short-Term

Perhaps the most common misconceptions about the share market is that it is directly linked to a nation’s economy. This is simply not the case. History shows time and again that markets can perform well when the economy is slowing and vice versa.

August 07, 2020

Likelihood of a Vaccine

Whilst still far from a certainty, we sense the odds of a vaccine being developed appear to be shortening. Researchers around the World are racing to develop a vaccine with more than 140 candidate vaccines now being tracked by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

August 07, 2020

How to Avoid a Permanent Loss of Capital

For investors, the real danger of crises such as this one is the possibility of suffering a permanent loss of capital. For the most part, this eventuality typically stems from…

March 31, 2020

What does Capitulation feel like?

The one thing we know with certainty with bear markets is that they will eventually end. The problem of course is working out when. In market speak, “capitulation” is the…

March 31, 2020

The Economic Scale of COVID-19

Coronavirus is affecting the global economy to a greater degree than any previous event.  Global supply chains are so interwoven that the initial disruption in China triggered a meaningful slowdown in…

March 30, 2020
Making rational decisions in irrational times

Should I sell now and buy back in later?

Share markets are breaking records daily right now. With all the uncertainty, and extreme volatility, many investors are asking themselves if they should sell their shares now, with a view to buying them back later when there are signs that things are returning to normal. In this edition of Insight, we provide investors with a framework through which to answer this question.

March 16, 2020

Portfolio declines since the COVID-19 sell-off began

In this edition of Insights we look at what’s really behind the volatility and give investors a sense of how their diversified portfolios have been travelling through this roller coaster period.

March 10, 2020

Understanding the Coronavirus

As most readers will know, Coronavirus (now known as COVID-19) started in the Wuhan province in China. Prima facie, you could be forgiven for believing that the virus isn’t remarkable.…

February 28, 2020

Zero risk – is it achievable or desirable? (LIVEXchange 2019)

Mark Minchin was recently asked to join an expert panel to talk about managing risk at the LiveX (Australian livestock exporters) conference in Townsville. Risk Tolerance Behavioural Finance Sustainability

November 12, 2019

Let’s talk about market risk

Whilst investors are right to consider global events and their implications, there is much more to the picture that should be considered if we are to be truly objective about…

September 18, 2019

Too Scared to Jump In?

With the Australian share market near record highs, some people may feel reluctant to invest and prefer instead to wait until the outlook feels more certain. However the difficulty with…

August 02, 2019

Why is Market Timing so Difficult?

Attempting to buy individual stocks or make tactical asset allocation changes at exactly the “right” time presents investors with substantial challenges.  Buyers and sellers in markets are generally motivated to trade…

August 02, 2019

Lost in the Middle?

With the election only a few days away, many of our clients have expressed confusion about the potential impact of a Shorten Labor Government. We've taken the time to explain…

May 15, 2019

We’ve opened a new Sydney office

We are pleased to announce the opening of our new offices in the Sydney CBD – Suite 2.14, 165-167 Phillip Street. This new location represents our fourth office, with existing…

October 08, 2018

Are we due another crisis? What’s our prediction?

Last month saw the ten-year anniversary of the Lehman collapse come and go. This is notable, as the collapse of Lehman was the tipping point of the financial crisis of…

October 05, 2018

Where to from here for the Financial Planning industry?

Even before an interim report has been issued by Commissioner Hayne, major changes to the financial planning landscape are already being announced. Three of the four major players (ANZ, CBA…

September 15, 2018

Super alone won’t cut it for most of us anymore

When the major superannuation changes came into law in 2017, most of the focus was on the $1.6M transfer balance cap for pension members. However, one significant change that may…

September 12, 2018

Harnessing the Wisdom of Crowds

Have you ever gone out on a limb and bought a stock on the share market based on a friend or colleague's advice? Or maybe you heard something and followed…

September 11, 2018

The Importance of Independence in Advice

The fundamental structure of the advice industry in Australia has been flawed, pretty much since its inception. The dishonest advice practices that are being uncovered daily by the Royal Commission…

April 22, 2018

The Perils of Individual Stock Picking

Selecting and buying individual stocks offers both the hope of great returns (you might find the next CSL or Apple) and the potential for disastrous results (ending up with Babcock…

September 01, 2017

Australia’s Top 50 Financial Advisers. The Money Makers: Mark Minchin No. 8.

Story by Bridget Carter. Published in The Deal by The Australian, in association with Barron's.  July 21st, 2017. Read the article as it was published in print by downloading it…

July 22, 2017

Trump’s Presidency, how did it happen & what does it mean?

At first glance the Trump victory seems completely bizarre. Here is a man who doesn’t pay his taxes, apparently hates Mexicans, disrespects women, routinely engages in sexual harassment, and is…

November 10, 2016

Speculator or Investor?

Most of the people who come to us for advice consider themselves investors, not speculators. The difference is of course open to interpretation and worth exploring. The dictionary defines speculation…

October 06, 2016

The Nobility of Paying Taxes

I could be on shaky ground from the outset with an article with a title like this. After all, Minchin Moore is an advice business whose clients rely on us…

September 28, 2016

Latest Amendments to the Government’s Superannuation Reforms

Since the Federal Budget on 3 May 2016, many superannuation strategies have carried a significant element of uncertainty. As you may have heard last week, the Government has announced some…

September 20, 2016

Brexit

We must confess we hadn't planned to write about the UK. Like most, we had expected that sanity would prevail at the 11th hour given countries rarely commit economic suicide. However…

June 22, 2016

Short-Termism

In the realm of politics, short-termism is a constant. To start with our terms of government are too short, and our politicians seem to increasingly make decisions based on current…

June 22, 2016

Make sure you have a process for dealing with volatility

At Minchin Moore we take the novel approach of focussing our time and attention on the things we can actually control, whilst remaining cognisant of the things that we can't. Some…

January 14, 2016

It will fluctuate

This response to the posed question "What will the stock market do?" is generally attributed to either J.P Morgan or J.D Rockefeller. Who actually said it, and to whom, is…

January 14, 2016

K-Billy’s Super Sounds Of The 70’s

Well I don't know why I came here tonight, 
I got the feeling that something ain't right, 
I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair, And I'm wondering…

September 09, 2015

Resisting Temptation

Many people don’t appreciate it, but an entire industry is built around getting you to trade stocks. The earnings season just provides another trigger for people to click the ticket…

March 04, 2015

What does the bursting of a “Bond Bubble” look like?

A lot has been made about the potential for a "bond bubble" following several successive years of interest rate falls and with interest rates now at historic lows virtually all around the world.…

March 03, 2015

What is a safe level of drawdown in retirement?

A burning question many retirees have when they cease work and start drawing down on their retirement capital is: “How much can I safely draw each year while ensuring that…

March 03, 2015

Too Low For Zero

Nothing seems to make much sense, It's all just Greek to me
, You know I'm too low, too low, Too low for zero. 
E. John/B. Taupin 1983   Elton John's 1983…

February 14, 2015

Avoiding herd mentality

What feels safe is often risky, and what feels risky is often safe. This statement contradicts just about every evolutionary instinct we possess. We tend to seek out safety and…

February 02, 2015

The Day The Carry Trade Died

I met a girl who sang the blues, And I asked her for some happy news, But she just smiled and turned away, I went down to the sacred store,…

November 14, 2014

Fortune Favours The Prepared

In the fields of observation, fortune favours the prepared mind. L Pasteur 1854.   Last month we talked of endgames - how the complexity of positions and factors can make it…

October 14, 2014

Bonds will lose if rates rise… won’t they?

In Australia, like in other young countries such as Canada and New Zealand, we have had a long love affair with equities. Indeed, Australia has had one of the best…

October 12, 2014

Beware High Frequency Monitoring

Investing is one of the few areas of life where you can do better by working and stressing less. Research has shown that the more frequently you check your investments,…

October 12, 2014

Respect the Cycle

One of the first really valuable lessons I learned in my investment career was to respect the market cycle. One of my seniors at Macquarie Bank always used to say…

August 14, 2014

Where Were They Going?

Anyone can see the road that they walk on is paved in gold, 
and its always summer they'll never get cold,
 they'll never get hungry, they'll never get old and…

July 14, 2014

FY2014: The “Experts” were Wrong Again

In around June and July each year we see a raft of media commentary about investment returns for the year that has been, as well as the views and opinions…

July 14, 2014

The Matrix

You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and…

December 14, 2013

The Jelly Bean Experiment

Markets can be noisy. How do you deal with this as an investor? One option is to take a position based on a single expert’s opinion. But experience shows that…

December 02, 2013

Focus on the things you can control

More often than not my client conversations begin with a series of questions regarding the many economic problems facing Australia and the world. Indeed there is no shortage of things to…

September 30, 2013

The dirty little secret the investment industry doesn’t want you to know

It is the dirty little secret of the investment world: most of the fund managers and stock brokers who are paid handsomely to pick stocks actually fail to beat the…

September 30, 2013

The Importance of Rebalancing

An important part of a winning investment strategy is regularly rebalancing the portfolio. Rebalancing is required because the market's movements cause the value at risk of a portfolio to drift.…

September 26, 2013

What will the markets do this year?

The ever optimistic Morgan Stanley team suggest the ASX 200 Index will go to 5750 (today we’re at around 4800) by June next year, while JP Morgan are more “glass…

July 24, 2013

How will the Developed World Heal Itself?

We all know by now that the financial crisis that erupted in 2007 and the sovereign debt crisis that followed were the result of the developed world borrowing from the…

January 05, 2013

Be Wary of Economic and Market Forecasts

Kris Vogelsong & Elton Doyle, Private Portfolio Managers It’s now the end of January and hundreds if not thousands of financial forecasts for 2012 have aired in every corner of…

January 31, 2012

Consumer Sentiment Diverges from Economic Fundamentals

It is an interesting predicament we find ourselves in today. On one hand our economy is the envy of the developed world, our sovereign debt is low, our interest rates…

July 15, 2011

Market commentary

Timely articles and videos to help you
understand what is happening in
markets and why

Quarterly Market Wrap Q1 2024

After the exuberance of the “pivot party” in the last eight weeks of 2023, many thought that there could be a retraction in early 2024. But markets have shaken off expectations that interest rate cuts are not coming as quickly as they had priced in at the end of last year.

April 14, 2024

Quarterly Market Wrap Q4 2023

At the start of 2023 every market commentator and analyst seemed to be planning for the recession they were convinced was coming. Equities and bond yields would all tumble as the fastest interest rate increases in a generation would plunge the world into a recession.

January 30, 2024

Quarterly Market Review for September 2023

For most of the quarter volatility stayed low and equity markets around the world defied interest rate increases and kept climbing upwards. But towards the end of the quarter it became apparent that inflation would remain sticky

October 11, 2023

Quarterly Market Wrap Q2 2023

An eerie calm has fallen over markets in recent weeks, as the banking stresses of early March fade into the background. Market measures of risk, such as volatility, have retreated, while global equity markets have rebounded strongly, buoyed by a resurgence in technology stocks.

July 24, 2023

AI-related stocks are on a winning streak; but a diversified portfolio remains your best bet

A portfolio that includes a diversified exposure to international shares that is linked to market cap weights will include stocks before, during and after they have their winning streak. That is your best bet for a successful investment journey.

June 21, 2023

Quarterly Market Wrap Q1 2023

Global stocks and bonds staged a sharp recovery in the first quarter as signs that inflation is moderating encouraged hopes that central banks will soon begin to wind down their year-long cycle of tightening monetary policy.

April 21, 2023

Quarterly Market Review for March 2023

This quarter has been dominated by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the ensuing banking crisis, set against a background of cooling inflation, continuing rate hikes,...

April 10, 2023

Australian Banks and the Current Global Banking Crisis

Volatility has struck financial markets as several banks in the US and Europe collapse and require Governments and regulators to step in to protect depositors. If there is another GFC brewing, are Australian banks at risk? The short answer is “no”.

March 28, 2023

Quarterly Market Wrap Q4 2022

December brought to an end the toughest year for global financial markets since the financial crisis of 2008 amid resurgent inflation, rising interest rates and the shock to commodity markets from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

January 24, 2023

2022: The Year That Was

Despite reassurances from the RBA at end of 2021 that interest rates would not go up until 2024 (!!!) the equity and bond markets really didn’t believe that, and prices started tumbling right from the start of the year.

December 19, 2022

Santa Rally, or a Real Rally?

Since the 1st of October the ASX 200 is up some 13%, meaning that year to date the Australian market is now in positive territory – certainly not what most investors would have thought after the volatility in markets this year.

December 17, 2022

The RBA are taking a break in January

As Christmas approaches, more and more people seem to be asking what is in store next year, in terms of interest rates. For those with mortgages, and perhaps fixed rate mortgages that are about to roll off, the need for clarity is acute.

December 15, 2022

Gravity Catches Up with Big Tech

Rapidly rising interest rates have had a profound effect on asset markets this year. Perhaps nowhere has this been more pronounced than in the technology sector.

December 06, 2022

Don’t Give Up on Bonds (they can still come through)

There are signs that global bond markets could be bottoming out and are ready to come back and play their traditional role as a defensive part of a portfolio.

November 30, 2022

Quarterly Market Wrap Q3 2022

Global stocks were mixed, while bonds fell for a third consecutive quarter to 30 September. Dominating headlines was inflation news, central bank action to rein it in,...

October 20, 2022

2022 has been one of the Worst Years on record for Balanced Portfolios

Most investors can ‘feel’ that 2022 has been a miserable year. Australian shares, as measured by the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index are down around -7% year to...

October 13, 2022

The Narrow Road

Keeping the economy moving forward while raising interest rates will be a narrow road and require careful navigation by central banks.

September 06, 2022
Dr Steve Garth

Known Unknowns: Bond vs Stock Performance

Known Unknowns. Bond vs Stock Performance, which will do better in the next 12 months?

August 04, 2022
Andrew Marchant

Quarterly Market Wrap Q2 2022

Both global bonds and equities fell heavily in an eventful June quarter in which headlines were dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation and efforts by authorities to unwind pandemic-era monetary stimulus.

July 29, 2022
Dr Steve Garth

Quarterly Market Review for June 2022

The themes for the June quarter are inflation, inflation, and inflation… The ASX defied gravity in the first quarter, but we have managed to catch up with the rest of the world this quarter.

July 12, 2022
Dr Steve Garth

Deja vu all over again

Aside from cash, good quality investment grade bonds are generally the most stable and defensive component of an investor’s portfolio. Yet over the last 12 months have bonds have fallen in value by around 10%.

June 23, 2022
Dr Steve Garth

Survival Guide for Volatility

Investors around the world have realized that fighting inflation is going to be painful—which in turn has caused turmoil in the markets. Since the start of the year the Australian market is down 12% – but that’s good relative to other markets.

June 23, 2022
Dr Steve Garth

What is the Market Outlook? Cloudy with a Chance of Recession

Dr Steve Garth, Independent member of the Minchin Moore investment committee, Principal at Principia Investment Consultants  Rampant inflation, rising interest rates, a war in Ukraine, Covid in...

June 07, 2022

Quarterly Market Wrap Q1 2022

Global equity markets in the March quarter posted their worst quarterly performance since the onset of pandemic two years ago, while the global bond market notched up its worst performance in at least three decades.

May 04, 2022

Quarterly Market Wrap Q3 2021

Global Markets Summary Global developed market stocks posted their sixth straight quarter of gains in the third quarter, with many indices hitting record highs in August before...

November 29, 2021
Andrew Marchant

Quarterly Market Wrap Q2 2021

Global equity markets rose for a fifth consecutive quarter in the three months to 30 June, reaching record highs and continuing their rapid recovery from the pandemic shock of the first quarter of 2020.

July 29, 2021

Quarterly Market Wrap Q1 2021

Global equity markets posted a strong start to 2021, with global indices approaching record highs and many individual markets approaching or surpassing pre-pandemic records.

Dominating headlines were growing signs of global economic recovery amid a fast-tracking of vaccine rollouts and the passing of a US$1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package by the incoming Biden administration.

May 03, 2021

Quarterly Market Wrap Q4 2020

Global Markets Summary An extraordinary year in global markets ended on a positive note in an eventful fourth quarter, with equities registering very strong gains, led by...

January 21, 2021

Quarterly Market Wrap Q3 2020

The dramatic turnaround in global equity markets from the coronavirus-induced slump in March continued in the September quarter, although prices fell back in the final month of the...

September 30, 2020