December 17, 2022
Dr Steve Garth

Santa Rally, or a Real Rally?

Since the 1st of October the ASX 200 is up some 13%, meaning that year to date the Australian market is now in positive territory – certainly not what most investors would have thought after the volatility in markets this year. And while other international markets have been negative year to date, they have also seen a rally in prices of around 10% since the end of September.

Many are calling this a Santa Rally, with the implication that just like Santa this is imaginary and will disappear quite soon…  Or is this a real rally? Have markets fully priced in future interest rate movements, terminal rates and coming recessions, and we are now witnessing a sustained rally in equities?

2022: The Year That Was

Despite reassurances from the RBA at end of 2021 that interest rates would not go up until 2024 (!!!) the equity and bond markets really didn’t believe that, and prices started tumbling right from the start of the year.

December 19, 2022