Category: Market commentary

Investor education

Timeless articles and videos to help
you become a better informed, more
confident, and less anxious investor

Bear Market

Tips from a behaviour expert on handling the Bear Market

Mark Minchin, Managing Partner Minchin Moore One of the ironies of investing is that although it’s actually very simple — or at least it should be simple — that doesn’t mean it’s…

August 01, 2022

Are active funds the best investment tool to use in choppy markets?

Andrew Marchant, Chief Investment Officer, Minchin Moore Every bear market, the same story gets trotted out. It’s one that says while index funds may give you an easy ride up…

July 19, 2022

Keep calm and carry on

Robin Powell – author, journalist, editor of the investing and personal finance blog, ‘The Evidence-Based Investor’ Warren Buffett is the master of the one-liner. His stock in trade is the…

July 13, 2022

Be prepared, more volatility is inevitable

We generally encourage our clients not to follow the ebb and flow of the global stock markets. But every now and then, you can’t easily avoid it, and we’re at…

June 21, 2022

How to stay rational in volatile markets

  RP: Stock market volatility can be very uncomfortable for investors. It can also lead us to make irrational decisions. But learning to live with turbulent markets is a crucial…

June 20, 2022

Advice is Improving but Sharks still Lurk

Robin Powell - author, journalist, editor of the investing and personal finance blog, 'The Evidence-Based Investor' It’s likely to take many years yet for the financial advice profession to regain…

June 14, 2022
How to Exercise the Life Choices that Wealth Affords Wisely

How to Exercise the Life Choices that Wealth Affords Wisely

A new book by Andrew Hallam suggests we take some time to reflect on what true wealth is all about. The key, he says, is to find a healthy balance,…

May 31, 2022
Melissa Caddick scandal

Lessons from the Melissa Caddick Scandal

The story of a woman who stole some $30 million from friends and family while posing as a financial planner and then mysteriously disappeared is the subject of Australia’s most…

May 24, 2022

Research shows that traders are prone to act like gamblers — Even the professionals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cx9Qq-gue1w Robin PowellProf Richard Taffler - University of Warwick  RP: Most people would agree that it’s not a good idea to gamble with your life savings. But, there’s a wealth…

May 23, 2022
Election Investment Strategy

Don’t let the Election disrupt your Investment Strategy

With Australians due to go to the polls on 21st May, that old saying about never bringing up politics at the dinner table perhaps needs to be revisited and extended…

May 17, 2022

Minchin Moore Announces Merger; Opens Office in Melbourne

It is with great pleasure that I announce the merger of Minchin Moore with Melbourne firm, Professional Wealth. The principal and founder of Professional Wealth, Doug Turek is a long-time…

May 06, 2022

Even with inflation looming, there’s still a place for bonds in your portfolio

Rapidly rising inflation is scary for those who haven’t experienced it — and that’s everyone under the age of around 50. It’s arguably even scarier for those who have. One…

May 03, 2022

How to choose a financial adviser

https://youtu.be/fERqfBCMxaU Robin PowellMichael E. Kitces RP: There may be a few people who can manage without, but sooner or later the vast majority of us need a financial adviser. So,…

April 24, 2022

Don’t assume outperformance is down to skill

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Noyu_oi1PY8 Robin PowellMartin Weber - University of MannheimRP RP: Hello there. Investors over-estimate the importance of skill and under-estimate the role of chance in investment return. That’s the key finding…

March 28, 2022

How investment marketing can mess with your mind

When he was once asked if there was ever a case for using active “stock-picker” style managed funds, the Nobel Prize-winning economist Eugene Fama fired a question back: “Why do we…

March 22, 2022

How to stay calm when markets fall

It’s been an uncomfortable start to the year for equity investors. Stock markets around the world have fallen, some more than others. Russian stocks have crashed, and investors in some…

March 11, 2022

Five things Investors can Learn from Shane Warne

Drought, fire, pandemic, floods, war and now the premature death of an Australian sporting icon. What’s next? Shane Warne was a flawed individual who polarised opinion. But in this edition of Insights,…

March 09, 2022

Geopolitical Risk and Your Portfolio

KEY TAKEAWAYS Current events in Ukraine are impacting major food, energy, and base metals supply chains and markets worldwide.The situation remains highly fluid, with the direction of events highly uncertain.Markets have and…

March 01, 2022

Is the Investment Climate as gloomy as it seems?

The years 2020 and 2021 were not “normal years”. Both years humbled forecasters, virtually none of whom accurately predicted either the downturn or the recovery. Now, two years on, with the…

February 24, 2022

All-Time-High Anxiety

Weston Wellington Vice President, Dimensional Fund Advisers KEY TAKEAWAYS Financial journalists periodically stoke investors’ record-high anxiety by suggesting the laws of physics apply to financial markets—that what goes up must…

September 25, 2021

Mind Your Negativity going into 2021

Some sentiments doing the rounds right now: The 4% rule (consuming 4% of your portfolio value each year) will never work anymore because bond yields are so low.Tech stocks are…

December 22, 2020

Our Ten Year Journey

From the beginning, our strategy has been to build an independent, professional advice business, unlike anything that existed before. A business free from the conflicts of interest that have plagued…

December 22, 2020

US Election 2020 Inside the Numbers

"The most fundamental problem of politics is not the control of wickedness but the limitation of righteousness" Henry Kissinger Regardless of political creed or levels of interest, the one thing…

September 01, 2020

Time to Embrace Diversification and Total Return

In an environment of diminishing income returns a different approach to funding cashflow is required. This approach seeks to take advantage of the diversification benefits and growth potential from lower…

August 08, 2020

Global Markets and the Global Economy take different Paths

Since I last wrote in this column on 31 March there has been tremendous change. The way we live, the way we work, the way we engage with each other…

August 07, 2020

Tech has Skewed the Numbers

To make sense of this seemingly impossible dichotomy of rising markets and deteriorating fundamentals, we need to look more deeply into the stock market’s composition. Whereas we have historically looked…

August 07, 2020

Massive Government Stimulus has Reflated the Markets

Any rational assessment of current market prices needs to factor in the huge increase in the money supply that has been spawned by global governments' 'whatever-it-takes' intervention to support markets, businesses,…

August 07, 2020

The Correlation between the Economy and the Stock Market is Low in the Short-Term

Perhaps the most common misconceptions about the share market is that it is directly linked to a nation’s economy. This is simply not the case. History shows time and again…

August 07, 2020

Likelihood of a Vaccine

Whilst still far from a certainty, we sense the odds of a vaccine being developed appear to be shortening. Researchers around the World are racing to develop a vaccine with…

August 07, 2020

How to Avoid a Permanent Loss of Capital

For investors, the real danger of crises such as this one is the possibility of suffering a permanent loss of capital. For the most part, this eventuality typically stems from…

March 31, 2020

What does Capitulation feel like?

The one thing we know with certainty with bear markets is that they will eventually end. The problem of course is working out when. In market speak, “capitulation” is the…

March 31, 2020

The Economic Scale of COVID-19

Coronavirus is affecting the global economy to a greater degree than any previous event.  Global supply chains are so interwoven that the initial disruption in China triggered a meaningful slowdown in…

March 30, 2020
Making rational decisions in irrational times

Should I sell now and buy back in later?

Share markets are breaking records daily right now. On Friday we saw our own share market plunge nearly -8%, only to recover +13% to round out the day up nearly +-5%.…

March 16, 2020

Portfolio declines since the COVID-19 sell-off began

Moves in global markets in recent days have been wild. Monday saw Australian stocks tumble -7.4% and US stocks -7.6%, one of the US market's biggest one day falls ever.On…

March 10, 2020

Understanding the Coronavirus

As most readers will know, Coronavirus (now known as COVID-19) started in the Wuhan province in China. Prima facie, you could be forgiven for believing that the virus isn’t remarkable.…

February 28, 2020

Zero risk – is it achievable or desirable? (LIVEXchange 2019)

Mark Minchin was recently asked to join an expert panel to talk about managing risk at the LiveX (Australian livestock exporters) conference in Townsville. Risk Tolerance Behavioural Finance Sustainability

November 12, 2019

Let’s talk about market risk

Whilst investors are right to consider global events and their implications, there is much more to the picture that should be considered if we are to be truly objective about…

September 18, 2019

Too Scared to Jump In?

With the Australian share market near record highs, some people may feel reluctant to invest and prefer instead to wait until the outlook feels more certain. However the difficulty with…

August 02, 2019

Why is Market Timing so Difficult?

Attempting to buy individual stocks or make tactical asset allocation changes at exactly the “right” time presents investors with substantial challenges.  Buyers and sellers in markets are generally motivated to trade…

August 02, 2019

Lost in the Middle?

With the election only a few days away, many of our clients have expressed confusion about the potential impact of a Shorten Labor Government. We've taken the time to explain…

May 15, 2019

We’ve opened a new Sydney office

We are pleased to announce the opening of our new offices in the Sydney CBD – Suite 2.14, 165-167 Phillip Street. This new location represents our fourth office, with existing…

October 08, 2018

Are we due another crisis? What’s our prediction?

Last month saw the ten-year anniversary of the Lehman collapse come and go. This is notable, as the collapse of Lehman was the tipping point of the financial crisis of…

October 05, 2018

Where to from here for the Financial Planning industry?

Even before an interim report has been issued by Commissioner Hayne, major changes to the financial planning landscape are already being announced. Three of the four major players (ANZ, CBA…

September 15, 2018

Super alone won’t cut it for most of us anymore

When the major superannuation changes came into law in 2017, most of the focus was on the $1.6M transfer balance cap for pension members. However, one significant change that may…

September 12, 2018

Harnessing the Wisdom of Crowds

Have you ever gone out on a limb and bought a stock on the share market based on a friend or colleague's advice? Or maybe you heard something and followed…

September 11, 2018

The Importance of Independence in Advice

The fundamental structure of the advice industry in Australia has been flawed, pretty much since its inception. The dishonest advice practices that are being uncovered daily by the Royal Commission…

April 22, 2018

The Perils of Individual Stock Picking

Selecting and buying individual stocks offers both the hope of great returns (you might find the next CSL or Apple) and the potential for disastrous results (ending up with Babcock…

September 01, 2017

Australia’s Top 50 Financial Advisers. The Money Makers: Mark Minchin No. 8.

Story by Bridget Carter. Published in The Deal by The Australian, in association with Barron's.  July 21st, 2017. Read the article as it was published in print by downloading it…

July 22, 2017

Trump’s Presidency, how did it happen & what does it mean?

At first glance the Trump victory seems completely bizarre. Here is a man who doesn’t pay his taxes, apparently hates Mexicans, disrespects women, routinely engages in sexual harassment, and is…

November 10, 2016

Speculator or Investor?

Most of the people who come to us for advice consider themselves investors, not speculators. The difference is of course open to interpretation and worth exploring. The dictionary defines speculation…

October 06, 2016

The Nobility of Paying Taxes

I could be on shaky ground from the outset with an article with a title like this. After all, Minchin Moore is an advice business whose clients rely on us…

September 28, 2016

Latest Amendments to the Government’s Superannuation Reforms

Since the Federal Budget on 3 May 2016, many superannuation strategies have carried a significant element of uncertainty. As you may have heard last week, the Government has announced some…

September 20, 2016

Brexit

We must confess we hadn't planned to write about the UK. Like most, we had expected that sanity would prevail at the 11th hour given countries rarely commit economic suicide. However…

June 22, 2016

Short-Termism

In the realm of politics, short-termism is a constant. To start with our terms of government are too short, and our politicians seem to increasingly make decisions based on current…

June 22, 2016

Make sure you have a process for dealing with volatility

At Minchin Moore we take the novel approach of focussing our time and attention on the things we can actually control, whilst remaining cognisant of the things that we can't. Some…

January 14, 2016

It will fluctuate

This response to the posed question "What will the stock market do?" is generally attributed to either J.P Morgan or J.D Rockefeller. Who actually said it, and to whom, is…

January 14, 2016

K-Billy’s Super Sounds Of The 70’s

Well I don't know why I came here tonight, 
I got the feeling that something ain't right, 
I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair, And I'm wondering…

September 09, 2015

Resisting Temptation

Many people don’t appreciate it, but an entire industry is built around getting you to trade stocks. The earnings season just provides another trigger for people to click the ticket…

March 04, 2015

What does the bursting of a “Bond Bubble” look like?

A lot has been made about the potential for a "bond bubble" following several successive years of interest rate falls and with interest rates now at historic lows virtually all around the world.…

March 03, 2015

What is a safe level of drawdown in retirement?

A burning question many retirees have when they cease work and start drawing down on their retirement capital is: “How much can I safely draw each year while ensuring that…

March 03, 2015

Too Low For Zero

Nothing seems to make much sense, It's all just Greek to me
, You know I'm too low, too low, Too low for zero. 
E. John/B. Taupin 1983   Elton John's 1983…

February 14, 2015

Avoiding herd mentality

What feels safe is often risky, and what feels risky is often safe. This statement contradicts just about every evolutionary instinct we possess. We tend to seek out safety and…

February 02, 2015

The Day The Carry Trade Died

I met a girl who sang the blues, And I asked her for some happy news, But she just smiled and turned away, I went down to the sacred store,…

November 14, 2014

Fortune Favours The Prepared

In the fields of observation, fortune favours the prepared mind. L Pasteur 1854.   Last month we talked of endgames - how the complexity of positions and factors can make it…

October 14, 2014

Bonds will lose if rates rise… won’t they?

In Australia, like in other young countries such as Canada and New Zealand, we have had a long love affair with equities. Indeed, Australia has had one of the best…

October 12, 2014

Beware High Frequency Monitoring

Investing is one of the few areas of life where you can do better by working and stressing less. Research has shown that the more frequently you check your investments,…

October 12, 2014

Respect the Cycle

One of the first really valuable lessons I learned in my investment career was to respect the market cycle. One of my seniors at Macquarie Bank always used to say…

August 14, 2014

Where Were They Going?

Anyone can see the road that they walk on is paved in gold, 
and its always summer they'll never get cold,
 they'll never get hungry, they'll never get old and…

July 14, 2014

FY2014: The “Experts” were Wrong Again

In around June and July each year we see a raft of media commentary about investment returns for the year that has been, as well as the views and opinions…

July 14, 2014

The Matrix

You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and…

December 14, 2013

The Jelly Bean Experiment

Markets can be noisy. How do you deal with this as an investor? One option is to take a position based on a single expert’s opinion. But experience shows that…

December 02, 2013

Focus on the things you can control

More often than not my client conversations begin with a series of questions regarding the many economic problems facing Australia and the world. Indeed there is no shortage of things to…

September 30, 2013

The dirty little secret the investment industry doesn’t want you to know

It is the dirty little secret of the investment world: most of the fund managers and stock brokers who are paid handsomely to pick stocks actually fail to beat the…

September 30, 2013

The Importance of Rebalancing

An important part of a winning investment strategy is regularly rebalancing the portfolio. Rebalancing is required because the market's movements cause the value at risk of a portfolio to drift.…

September 26, 2013

What will the markets do this year?

The ever optimistic Morgan Stanley team suggest the ASX 200 Index will go to 5750 (today we’re at around 4800) by June next year, while JP Morgan are more “glass…

July 24, 2013

How will the Developed World Heal Itself?

We all know by now that the financial crisis that erupted in 2007 and the sovereign debt crisis that followed were the result of the developed world borrowing from the…

January 05, 2013

Be Wary of Economic and Market Forecasts

Kris Vogelsong & Elton Doyle, Private Portfolio Managers It’s now the end of January and hundreds if not thousands of financial forecasts for 2012 have aired in every corner of…

January 31, 2012

Consumer Sentiment Diverges from Economic Fundamentals

It is an interesting predicament we find ourselves in today. On one hand our economy is the envy of the developed world, our sovereign debt is low, our interest rates…

July 15, 2011

Market commentary

Timely articles and videos to help you
understand what is happening in
markets and why

Dr Steve Garth

Known Unknowns: Bond vs Stock Performance

Known Unknowns. Bond vs Stock Performance, which will do better in the next 12 months? As investors one of the things, we need to be ever mindful...

August 04, 2022
Andrew Marchant

Quarterly Market Wrap Q2 2022

Both global bonds and equities fell heavily in an eventful June quarter in which headlines were dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation and efforts...

July 29, 2022
Dr Steve Garth

Quarterly Market Review for June 2022

The themes for the June quarter are inflation, inflation, and inflation. The ASX defied gravity in the first quarter, but we have managed to catch up with...

July 12, 2022
Dr Steve Garth

Deja vu all over again

https://youtu.be/7NgMBUGvA-Y Aside from cash, good quality investment grade bonds are generally the most stable and defensive component of an investor’s portfolio. Yet over the last 12 months...

June 23, 2022
Dr Steve Garth

Survival Guide for Volatility

https://youtu.be/O9GxaMjqViw Investors around the world have realised that fighting inflation is going to be painful — which in turn has caused turmoil in the markets. Since the...

June 23, 2022
Dr Steve Garth

What is the Market Outlook? Cloudy with a Chance of Recession

Dr Steve Garth, Independent member of the Minchin Moore investment committee, Principal at Principia Investment Consultants  Rampant inflation, rising interest rates, a war in Ukraine, Covid in...

June 07, 2022

Quarterly Market Wrap Q1 2022

Global equity markets in the March quarter posted their worst quarterly performance since the onset of pandemic two years ago, while the global bond market notched up...

May 04, 2022

Quarterly Market Wrap Q3 2021

Global Markets Summary Global developed market stocks posted their sixth straight quarter of gains in the third quarter, with many indices hitting record highs in August before...

November 29, 2021
Andrew Marchant

Quarterly Market Wrap Q2 2021

Global Markets Summary Global equity markets rose for a fifth consecutive quarter in the three months to 30 June, reaching record highs and continuing their rapid recovery...

July 29, 2021

Quarterly Market Wrap Q1 2021

Global equity markets posted a strong start to 2021, with global indices approaching record highs and many individual markets approaching or surpassing pre-pandemic records. Positive economic data...

May 03, 2021

Quarterly Market Wrap Q4 2020

Global Markets Summary An extraordinary year in global markets ended on a positive note in an eventful fourth quarter, with equities registering very strong gains, led by...

January 21, 2021

Quarterly Market Wrap Q3 2020

The dramatic turnaround in global equity markets from the coronavirus-induced slump in March continued in the September quarter, although prices fell back in the final month of the...

September 30, 2020