Category: Market wrap
Investor education
Timeless articles and videos to help
you become a better informed, more
confident, and less anxious investor
Tips from a behaviour expert on handling the Bear Market
Mark Minchin, Managing Partner Minchin Moore One of the ironies of investing is that although it’s actually very simple — or at least it should be simple — that doesn’t mean it’s…
Are active funds the best investment tool to use in choppy markets?
Andrew Marchant, Chief Investment Officer, Minchin Moore Every bear market, the same story gets trotted out. It’s one that says while index funds may give you an easy ride up…
Keep calm and carry on
Robin Powell – author, journalist, editor of the investing and personal finance blog, ‘The Evidence-Based Investor’ Warren Buffett is the master of the one-liner. His stock in trade is the…
Be prepared, more volatility is inevitable
We generally encourage our clients not to follow the ebb and flow of the global stock markets. But every now and then, you can’t easily avoid it, and we’re at…
How to stay rational in volatile markets
RP: Stock market volatility can be very uncomfortable for investors. It can also lead us to make irrational decisions. But learning to live with turbulent markets is a crucial…
Advice is Improving but Sharks still Lurk
Robin Powell - author, journalist, editor of the investing and personal finance blog, 'The Evidence-Based Investor' It’s likely to take many years yet for the financial advice profession to regain…
How to Exercise the Life Choices that Wealth Affords Wisely
A new book by Andrew Hallam suggests we take some time to reflect on what true wealth is all about. The key, he says, is to find a healthy balance,…
Lessons from the Melissa Caddick Scandal
The story of a woman who stole some $30 million from friends and family while posing as a financial planner and then mysteriously disappeared is the subject of Australia’s most…
Research shows that traders are prone to act like gamblers — Even the professionals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cx9Qq-gue1w Robin PowellProf Richard Taffler - University of Warwick RP: Most people would agree that it’s not a good idea to gamble with your life savings. But, there’s a wealth…
Don’t let the Election disrupt your Investment Strategy
With Australians due to go to the polls on 21st May, that old saying about never bringing up politics at the dinner table perhaps needs to be revisited and extended…
Minchin Moore Announces Merger; Opens Office in Melbourne
It is with great pleasure that I announce the merger of Minchin Moore with Melbourne firm, Professional Wealth. The principal and founder of Professional Wealth, Doug Turek is a long-time…
Even with inflation looming, there’s still a place for bonds in your portfolio
Rapidly rising inflation is scary for those who haven’t experienced it — and that’s everyone under the age of around 50. It’s arguably even scarier for those who have. One…
How to choose a financial adviser
https://youtu.be/fERqfBCMxaU Robin PowellMichael E. Kitces RP: There may be a few people who can manage without, but sooner or later the vast majority of us need a financial adviser. So,…
Don’t assume outperformance is down to skill
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Noyu_oi1PY8 Robin PowellMartin Weber - University of MannheimRP RP: Hello there. Investors over-estimate the importance of skill and under-estimate the role of chance in investment return. That’s the key finding…
How investment marketing can mess with your mind
When he was once asked if there was ever a case for using active “stock-picker” style managed funds, the Nobel Prize-winning economist Eugene Fama fired a question back: “Why do we…
How to stay calm when markets fall
It’s been an uncomfortable start to the year for equity investors. Stock markets around the world have fallen, some more than others. Russian stocks have crashed, and investors in some…
Five things Investors can Learn from Shane Warne
Drought, fire, pandemic, floods, war and now the premature death of an Australian sporting icon. What’s next? Shane Warne was a flawed individual who polarised opinion. But in this edition of Insights,…
Geopolitical Risk and Your Portfolio
KEY TAKEAWAYS Current events in Ukraine are impacting major food, energy, and base metals supply chains and markets worldwide.The situation remains highly fluid, with the direction of events highly uncertain.Markets have and…
Is the Investment Climate as gloomy as it seems?
The years 2020 and 2021 were not “normal years”. Both years humbled forecasters, virtually none of whom accurately predicted either the downturn or the recovery. Now, two years on, with the…
All-Time-High Anxiety
Weston Wellington Vice President, Dimensional Fund Advisers KEY TAKEAWAYS Financial journalists periodically stoke investors’ record-high anxiety by suggesting the laws of physics apply to financial markets—that what goes up must…
Mind Your Negativity going into 2021
Some sentiments doing the rounds right now: The 4% rule (consuming 4% of your portfolio value each year) will never work anymore because bond yields are so low.Tech stocks are…
Our Ten Year Journey
From the beginning, our strategy has been to build an independent, professional advice business, unlike anything that existed before. A business free from the conflicts of interest that have plagued…
US Election 2020 Inside the Numbers
"The most fundamental problem of politics is not the control of wickedness but the limitation of righteousness" Henry Kissinger Regardless of political creed or levels of interest, the one thing…
Time to Embrace Diversification and Total Return
In an environment of diminishing income returns a different approach to funding cashflow is required. This approach seeks to take advantage of the diversification benefits and growth potential from lower…
Global Markets and the Global Economy take different Paths
Since I last wrote in this column on 31 March there has been tremendous change. The way we live, the way we work, the way we engage with each other…
Tech has Skewed the Numbers
To make sense of this seemingly impossible dichotomy of rising markets and deteriorating fundamentals, we need to look more deeply into the stock market’s composition. Whereas we have historically looked…
Massive Government Stimulus has Reflated the Markets
Any rational assessment of current market prices needs to factor in the huge increase in the money supply that has been spawned by global governments' 'whatever-it-takes' intervention to support markets, businesses,…
The Correlation between the Economy and the Stock Market is Low in the Short-Term
Perhaps the most common misconceptions about the share market is that it is directly linked to a nation’s economy. This is simply not the case. History shows time and again…
Likelihood of a Vaccine
Whilst still far from a certainty, we sense the odds of a vaccine being developed appear to be shortening. Researchers around the World are racing to develop a vaccine with…
How to Avoid a Permanent Loss of Capital
For investors, the real danger of crises such as this one is the possibility of suffering a permanent loss of capital. For the most part, this eventuality typically stems from…
What does Capitulation feel like?
The one thing we know with certainty with bear markets is that they will eventually end. The problem of course is working out when. In market speak, “capitulation” is the…
The Economic Scale of COVID-19
Coronavirus is affecting the global economy to a greater degree than any previous event. Global supply chains are so interwoven that the initial disruption in China triggered a meaningful slowdown in…
Should I sell now and buy back in later?
Share markets are breaking records daily right now. On Friday we saw our own share market plunge nearly -8%, only to recover +13% to round out the day up nearly +-5%.…
Portfolio declines since the COVID-19 sell-off began
Moves in global markets in recent days have been wild. Monday saw Australian stocks tumble -7.4% and US stocks -7.6%, one of the US market's biggest one day falls ever.On…
Understanding the Coronavirus
As most readers will know, Coronavirus (now known as COVID-19) started in the Wuhan province in China. Prima facie, you could be forgiven for believing that the virus isn’t remarkable.…
Zero risk – is it achievable or desirable? (LIVEXchange 2019)
Mark Minchin was recently asked to join an expert panel to talk about managing risk at the LiveX (Australian livestock exporters) conference in Townsville. Risk Tolerance Behavioural Finance Sustainability
Let’s talk about market risk
Whilst investors are right to consider global events and their implications, there is much more to the picture that should be considered if we are to be truly objective about…
Too Scared to Jump In?
With the Australian share market near record highs, some people may feel reluctant to invest and prefer instead to wait until the outlook feels more certain. However the difficulty with…
Why is Market Timing so Difficult?
Attempting to buy individual stocks or make tactical asset allocation changes at exactly the “right” time presents investors with substantial challenges. Buyers and sellers in markets are generally motivated to trade…
Lost in the Middle?
With the election only a few days away, many of our clients have expressed confusion about the potential impact of a Shorten Labor Government. We've taken the time to explain…
We’ve opened a new Sydney office
We are pleased to announce the opening of our new offices in the Sydney CBD – Suite 2.14, 165-167 Phillip Street. This new location represents our fourth office, with existing…
Are we due another crisis? What’s our prediction?
Last month saw the ten-year anniversary of the Lehman collapse come and go. This is notable, as the collapse of Lehman was the tipping point of the financial crisis of…
Where to from here for the Financial Planning industry?
Even before an interim report has been issued by Commissioner Hayne, major changes to the financial planning landscape are already being announced. Three of the four major players (ANZ, CBA…
Super alone won’t cut it for most of us anymore
When the major superannuation changes came into law in 2017, most of the focus was on the $1.6M transfer balance cap for pension members. However, one significant change that may…
Harnessing the Wisdom of Crowds
Have you ever gone out on a limb and bought a stock on the share market based on a friend or colleague's advice? Or maybe you heard something and followed…
The Importance of Independence in Advice
The fundamental structure of the advice industry in Australia has been flawed, pretty much since its inception. The dishonest advice practices that are being uncovered daily by the Royal Commission…
The Perils of Individual Stock Picking
Selecting and buying individual stocks offers both the hope of great returns (you might find the next CSL or Apple) and the potential for disastrous results (ending up with Babcock…
Australia’s Top 50 Financial Advisers. The Money Makers: Mark Minchin No. 8.
Story by Bridget Carter. Published in The Deal by The Australian, in association with Barron's. July 21st, 2017. Read the article as it was published in print by downloading it…
Trump’s Presidency, how did it happen & what does it mean?
At first glance the Trump victory seems completely bizarre. Here is a man who doesn’t pay his taxes, apparently hates Mexicans, disrespects women, routinely engages in sexual harassment, and is…
Speculator or Investor?
Most of the people who come to us for advice consider themselves investors, not speculators. The difference is of course open to interpretation and worth exploring. The dictionary defines speculation…
The Nobility of Paying Taxes
I could be on shaky ground from the outset with an article with a title like this. After all, Minchin Moore is an advice business whose clients rely on us…
Latest Amendments to the Government’s Superannuation Reforms
Since the Federal Budget on 3 May 2016, many superannuation strategies have carried a significant element of uncertainty. As you may have heard last week, the Government has announced some…
Short-Termism
In the realm of politics, short-termism is a constant. To start with our terms of government are too short, and our politicians seem to increasingly make decisions based on current…
Make sure you have a process for dealing with volatility
At Minchin Moore we take the novel approach of focussing our time and attention on the things we can actually control, whilst remaining cognisant of the things that we can't. Some…
It will fluctuate
This response to the posed question "What will the stock market do?" is generally attributed to either J.P Morgan or J.D Rockefeller. Who actually said it, and to whom, is…
K-Billy’s Super Sounds Of The 70’s
Well I don't know why I came here tonight, I got the feeling that something ain't right, I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair, And I'm wondering…
Resisting Temptation
Many people don’t appreciate it, but an entire industry is built around getting you to trade stocks. The earnings season just provides another trigger for people to click the ticket…
What does the bursting of a “Bond Bubble” look like?
A lot has been made about the potential for a "bond bubble" following several successive years of interest rate falls and with interest rates now at historic lows virtually all around the world.…
What is a safe level of drawdown in retirement?
A burning question many retirees have when they cease work and start drawing down on their retirement capital is: “How much can I safely draw each year while ensuring that…
Too Low For Zero
Nothing seems to make much sense, It's all just Greek to me , You know I'm too low, too low, Too low for zero. E. John/B. Taupin 1983 Elton John's 1983…
Avoiding herd mentality
What feels safe is often risky, and what feels risky is often safe. This statement contradicts just about every evolutionary instinct we possess. We tend to seek out safety and…
The Day The Carry Trade Died
I met a girl who sang the blues, And I asked her for some happy news, But she just smiled and turned away, I went down to the sacred store,…
Fortune Favours The Prepared
In the fields of observation, fortune favours the prepared mind. L Pasteur 1854. Last month we talked of endgames - how the complexity of positions and factors can make it…
Bonds will lose if rates rise… won’t they?
In Australia, like in other young countries such as Canada and New Zealand, we have had a long love affair with equities. Indeed, Australia has had one of the best…
Beware High Frequency Monitoring
Investing is one of the few areas of life where you can do better by working and stressing less. Research has shown that the more frequently you check your investments,…
Respect the Cycle
One of the first really valuable lessons I learned in my investment career was to respect the market cycle. One of my seniors at Macquarie Bank always used to say…
Where Were They Going?
Anyone can see the road that they walk on is paved in gold, and its always summer they'll never get cold, they'll never get hungry, they'll never get old and…
FY2014: The “Experts” were Wrong Again
In around June and July each year we see a raft of media commentary about investment returns for the year that has been, as well as the views and opinions…
The Matrix
You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and…
The Jelly Bean Experiment
Markets can be noisy. How do you deal with this as an investor? One option is to take a position based on a single expert’s opinion. But experience shows that…
Focus on the things you can control
More often than not my client conversations begin with a series of questions regarding the many economic problems facing Australia and the world. Indeed there is no shortage of things to…
The dirty little secret the investment industry doesn’t want you to know
It is the dirty little secret of the investment world: most of the fund managers and stock brokers who are paid handsomely to pick stocks actually fail to beat the…
The Importance of Rebalancing
An important part of a winning investment strategy is regularly rebalancing the portfolio. Rebalancing is required because the market's movements cause the value at risk of a portfolio to drift.…
What will the markets do this year?
The ever optimistic Morgan Stanley team suggest the ASX 200 Index will go to 5750 (today we’re at around 4800) by June next year, while JP Morgan are more “glass…
How will the Developed World Heal Itself?
We all know by now that the financial crisis that erupted in 2007 and the sovereign debt crisis that followed were the result of the developed world borrowing from the…
Be Wary of Economic and Market Forecasts
Kris Vogelsong & Elton Doyle, Private Portfolio Managers It’s now the end of January and hundreds if not thousands of financial forecasts for 2012 have aired in every corner of…
Consumer Sentiment Diverges from Economic Fundamentals
It is an interesting predicament we find ourselves in today. On one hand our economy is the envy of the developed world, our sovereign debt is low, our interest rates…
Market commentary
Timely articles and videos to help you
understand what is happening in
markets and why
Known Unknowns: Bond vs Stock Performance
Known Unknowns. Bond vs Stock Performance, which will do better in the next 12 months? As investors one of the things, we need to be ever mindful...
Quarterly Market Wrap Q2 2022
Both global bonds and equities fell heavily in an eventful June quarter in which headlines were dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation and efforts...
Quarterly Market Review for June 2022
The themes for the June quarter are inflation, inflation, and inflation. The ASX defied gravity in the first quarter, but we have managed to catch up with...
Deja vu all over again
https://youtu.be/7NgMBUGvA-Y Aside from cash, good quality investment grade bonds are generally the most stable and defensive component of an investor’s portfolio. Yet over the last 12 months...
Survival Guide for Volatility
https://youtu.be/O9GxaMjqViw Investors around the world have realised that fighting inflation is going to be painful — which in turn has caused turmoil in the markets. Since the...
What is the Market Outlook? Cloudy with a Chance of Recession
Dr Steve Garth, Independent member of the Minchin Moore investment committee, Principal at Principia Investment Consultants Rampant inflation, rising interest rates, a war in Ukraine, Covid in...
Quarterly Market Wrap Q1 2022
Global equity markets in the March quarter posted their worst quarterly performance since the onset of pandemic two years ago, while the global bond market notched up...
Quarterly Market Wrap Q3 2021
Global Markets Summary Global developed market stocks posted their sixth straight quarter of gains in the third quarter, with many indices hitting record highs in August before...
Quarterly Market Wrap Q2 2021
Global Markets Summary Global equity markets rose for a fifth consecutive quarter in the three months to 30 June, reaching record highs and continuing their rapid recovery...
Quarterly Market Wrap Q1 2021
Global equity markets posted a strong start to 2021, with global indices approaching record highs and many individual markets approaching or surpassing pre-pandemic records. Positive economic data...
Quarterly Market Wrap Q4 2020
Global Markets Summary An extraordinary year in global markets ended on a positive note in an eventful fourth quarter, with equities registering very strong gains, led by...
Quarterly Market Wrap Q3 2020
The dramatic turnaround in global equity markets from the coronavirus-induced slump in March continued in the September quarter, although prices fell back in the final month of the...
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